South Africa entered the 2025/26 maize marketing season expecting strong export demand after harvesting one of its largest maize crops on record, but weaker buying activity from key Asian markets tempered export volumes during the year.
The country produced approximately 16.5 million tonnes of maize during the season, significantly above domestic consumption requirements of around 12 million tonnes. Industry participants initially projected maize exports of about 2.4 million tonnes for the marketing year, which ended in April 2026.
However, actual exports reached only about two million tonnes, according to Wandile Sihlobo.
Asian demand weakens amid abundant global supplies
Sihlobo attributed the softer export performance largely to subdued demand from traditional Far East importers such as Vietnam, Taiwan and South Korea.
These markets were less active during the season as global maize supplies remained abundant and lower-priced grain was available from competing exporters.
According to Sihlobo, the availability of more affordable maize on international markets reduced the competitiveness of South African exports in Asia despite the country’s large harvest.
Zimbabwe emerges as top buyer
Regional demand from Southern Africa became the main driver of South Africa’s maize exports during the season.
Zimbabwe emerged as the largest importer of South African maize, accounting for roughly 39% of total exports.
Zimbabwe imported approximately 780,770 tonnes of both white and yellow maize as the country faced lower domestic production and rising food demand.
The strong regional demand highlights the growing importance of intra-African grain trade in balancing supply shortages across Southern Africa.
Another record crop expected
South Africa is now entering the 2026/27 marketing year with expectations of an even larger maize harvest.
Current production estimates place the 2025/26 crop at 16.8 million tonnes, about 1% higher than the previous season and potentially the country’s largest maize crop on record.
The harvest is expected to include:
- 9.1 million tonnes of white maize,
- and 7.7 million tonnes of yellow maize.
Expanded planting areas and strong yields have supported the higher production outlook.
El Niño risks may support regional demand
Despite softer Asian demand, analysts believe export conditions could improve later in the season as weather risks begin affecting regional production prospects.
Sihlobo noted that Southern Africa could move towards an El Niño cycle, which often brings drier conditions to parts of the region and increases maize import requirements among neighbouring countries.
This could create additional demand for South African maize beyond Zimbabwe.
At the same time, a possible increase in global maize prices may encourage Far East buyers to return to the South African market in the coming months.
The outlook reinforces South Africa’s strategic role as a major grain supplier within Africa, particularly during periods of regional climate-related supply pressure.