Almost two-thirds of the large-scale wind and solar projects planned across Africa are intended to power electrolysers for green hydrogen destined for European markets, according to analysis by Global Energy Monitor (GEM). GEM has identified roughly 350 GW of prospective utility-scale wind and solar capacity on the continent — about ten times what is currently operating — and finds that about 61% of that pipeline, some 216 GW across 35 projects, is linked to hydrogen export schemes.
Those projects are concentrated in a handful of countries, including Mauritania, Mozambique, Djibouti, Namibia, South Africa, Kenya, Morocco, Egypt, Botswana and The Gambia. In Mauritania, for example, every new wind and solar project in the pipeline — about 79.5 GW — is tied to hydrogen proposals. GEM warns that such export-focused developments could divert investment and generation capacity away from initiatives that would expand domestic electricity access and support local development.
GEM highlights the stark scale mismatch between these megaprojects and existing national systems: many proposed facilities are hundreds of times larger than a host country’s current renewables capacity. The group also questions the feasibility of many plans, noting that most developers lack experience building at this scale and that fewer than half of projects include construction timelines. To date, Africa has only one operational renewables-linked green hydrogen project of note: the 12 MW Oshivela green iron facility in Namibia.
The analyst argues that prioritising massive export projects risks crowding out smaller, distributed renewable projects that have proven benefits for households and local economies. GEM points out that relatively modest additions of wind and solar could dramatically raise per-capita electricity consumption in some countries; for instance, just a few gigawatts could bring Djibouti’s per-capita electricity closer to European levels.
GEM also calls for greater transparency and local agency in decisions about energy development. It urges European companies and governments backing African hydrogen projects to be clear about the risks and to ensure host countries and communities can choose energy pathways that best serve their needs. Without safeguards to secure local benefits, the group warns, export-oriented hydrogen schemes could undermine efforts to expand energy access and equitable decarbonisation across the continent.
