This week, South Africa’s first-quarter GDP data will be released, and one sector that may attract attention is agriculture, which posed significant economic challenges last year.
The sector faced hurdles in 2024, including a mid-summer drought, delays in harvesting deliveries, and outbreaks of animal diseases. However, the outlook for this year is expected to be more optimistic. While I won’t provide specific projections on its anticipated performance, I would like to highlight several key factors worth considering as we approach the data release and assess agricultural trends throughout the year.
The sector’s trajectory in 2025, compared to 2024, will be shaped by several positive developments:
- Strong summer grains and oilseeds output – The latest estimates from the Crop Estimates Committee forecast a harvest of 17.98 million tonnes, a 16% increase from the drought-affected 2023-24 season, supported by favorable rainfall and adequate planting.
- Recovery in sugar production – South Africa’s 2024-25 sugar output is expected to rise by 7% year-on-year to 2.09 million tonnes, driven by improved weather conditions and sufficient irrigation resources.
- Promising results in wine production – Data from SA Wine and Vinpro suggest a wine grape harvest of 1.244 million tonnes, marking an 11% rebound from the exceptionally poor 2024 season.
- Positive momentum in table grapes – The South African Table Grape Industry reports an inspected harvest of 78.9 million cartons for 2024-25, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase.
- Strengthening performance in citrus, fruits, and vegetables – Various horticultural segments are showing encouraging production trends.
- Recovery in poultry – Moderating maize and soybean prices are expected to support the poultry industry’s continued revival.
However, challenges persist in the livestock sector, particularly due to the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. The resulting temporary bans on South African beef exports imposed by several trading partners remain a concern. Given livestock’s substantial contribution to the country’s agricultural gross value added, these difficulties warrant close scrutiny when assessing overall sector performance.
These challenges are the reason I have previously referred to the “uneven” recovery expected in agriculture during 2025. Quarterly agricultural gross value-added figures can be volatile, but from an annual perspective, a strong rebound seems likely. The sector’s contraction in previous years (-8% y/y in 2024 and -4.8% in 2023) should ease as base effects, coupled with improved output in field crops, horticulture, and poultry, help drive a broad recovery.
Still, at the subsector level, performance will likely remain mixed, with ongoing difficulties particularly affecting livestock