South Africa’s growing trade surplus is providing a misleading picture of the country’s export performance, with rising commodity prices and weak import growth contributing more to the improvement than broad-based gains in international competitiveness.
The country recorded a trade surplus of R169 billion between January and September 2026, compared with R117.5 billion during the same period in 2025. Export earnings increased by 7.2%, while imports rose by 4.1%, according to the South African Revenue Service (SARS).
However, economists warn that the gains remain concentrated in mining and precious metals, while several manufacturing and other export industries continue to face challenges.
Chris Hattingh, executive director of the Centre for Risk Analysis, attributed much of the improvement to favourable commodity prices and relatively weak imports rather than stronger export competitiveness.
Momentum Group economist Sanisha Packirisamy similarly noted that higher earnings from mining and precious metals accounted for a significant share of the increase, while revenues from other exports combined declined.
Commodity dependence exposes export vulnerabilities
Platinum group metals, gold and zinc ores were among the products supporting export growth. Packirisamy estimated that mining, precious metals and stones generated an additional R130 billion in export earnings, while revenues from other exports collectively fell by about R20 billion.
Minerals and precious metals accounted for almost half of South Africa’s goods export earnings in early 2026, leaving the country’s trade performance heavily exposed to international commodity prices.
Hattingh noted that platinum and gold represented approximately 18% of exports in 2025, while the country’s 10 largest export products accounted for 50.5% of total exports.
This concentration creates risks for government revenue, mining investment and the broader economy when commodity prices weaken. The 5.8% monthly decline in exports recorded in August illustrated how changes in precious metals and mineral sales can quickly affect trade performance.
Manufacturing has not delivered comparable momentum. Base metal export values declined by 3% during the first nine months of 2026, while machinery, vehicle and chemical exports also experienced pressure.
The figures suggest that South Africa’s trade surplus is expanding without a corresponding broadening of its export base.
AGOA uncertainty raises pressure on exporters
Uncertainty surrounding the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), the United States’ trade preference programme for eligible African countries, has added another challenge for South African exporters.
Potential exclusion from AGOA would not prevent South African products from entering the US market, but it could remove preferential tariff treatment and make affected goods more expensive relative to competing imports.
Hattingh estimated that the US accounts for around 7% of South Africa’s total exports, compared with China’s 11.7%. However, industries such as clothing, citrus and chemicals could be particularly vulnerable because they operate on relatively narrow profit margins.
Wandile Sihlobo, presidential envoy on agriculture and land and chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said exclusion could expose South African goods to an additional Most Favoured Nation tariff of approximately 3.4%, on top of existing US tariffs.
For products currently facing a 12.5% tariff, the combined rate could rise to 15.9%, although the actual impact would vary across products and sectors.
Agricultural exports illustrate the potential consequences. South Africa exported $504 million worth of agricultural products to the US in 2025, with citrus, berries, grapes, wine, fruit juices and nuts among the products involved.
Sihlobo said higher tariffs had affected trade but had not completely stopped exports, demonstrating that South African producers could continue competing even under more difficult market conditions.
Nevertheless, additional costs could reduce exporters’ profit margins, force companies to increase prices or discourage investment in expanded production.
Market diversification requires stronger domestic capacity
South Africa’s dependence on a limited range of export products makes diversification increasingly important. However, economists argue that expanding the number of trading partners alone will not resolve the country’s competitiveness challenges.
China and the European Union remain important markets, but weaker demand in either could affect South African mining and manufacturing.
China, for example, purchases more than half of South Africa’s iron ore exports, leaving the mining sector exposed to changes in Chinese construction and steel demand. The EU is also a significant destination for manufactured products, including vehicles and machinery.
There is an opportunity to increase the range of manufactured goods exported to China. South African Reserve Bank figures cited in the report show that China supplies 35.7% of South Africa’s manufactured imports but accounts for only 5.9% of its manufactured exports.
Agriculture offers another route towards a broader export base. South African agricultural exports reached $4.1 billion in the second quarter of 2026, representing a 10% increase year on year.
Africa accounted for 40% of these exports, followed by Asia and the Middle East at 24%, and the European Union at 21%.
However, accessing new markets requires exporters to meet product standards, improve logistics and establish reliable distribution networks. Processed food and agricultural equipment exports into African markets, for example, depend on efficient border procedures and dependable transport infrastructure.
In Asian markets, food safety compliance, cold-chain storage and distribution capacity are particularly important for exporters targeting premium agricultural customers.
Infrastructure costs undermine export competitiveness
Domestic infrastructure constraints remain a major obstacle to South Africa’s export ambitions.
High electricity costs, water shortages, inefficient transport systems and delays at ports increase the cost of producing and delivering goods. These challenges affect manufacturers and agricultural businesses as much as mining companies.
Hattingh estimated that logistics costs could reach R1.16 trillion, equivalent to 14.6% of GDP, in 2026. Transport costs alone were expected to add R117 billion to the logistics bill.
Although rail payload increased by 4% in the year to October 2025, Hattingh cautioned that transport reforms remained at an early stage.
Electricity tariff increases and the economic costs of crime add further pressure on businesses already competing against international producers with more reliable infrastructure and lower operating costs.
For exporters, these domestic constraints can erode the benefits of favourable exchange rates, strong commodity prices or access to new markets.
Export growth must extend beyond commodities
The challenge for South Africa over the next five years will be to convert its trade surplus into evidence of stronger and more diversified export capacity.
Economists argue that progress should be measured not only by the value of exports, but also by the range of products sold internationally, the number of markets reached and the country’s share of global trade.
Reducing dependence on a small group of commodities will require stronger manufacturing capacity, more competitive agricultural value chains and improved infrastructure.
Cheaper and more reliable electricity, efficient ports and rail networks, and lower regulatory and compliance costs will be essential to helping businesses compete internationally.
South Africa’s R169 billion trade surplus demonstrates the value of its mineral resources and established export relationships. However, sustained export growth will depend on whether the country can expand the contribution of manufactured and processed products and make its wider economy more competitive.