East African economies are accelerating efforts to diversify trade routes, strengthen regional supply chains and expand new export partnerships as ongoing instability in the Middle East disrupts critical shipping and energy corridors linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
Countries including Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda and Zambia are increasingly feeling the pressure from supply chain disruptions affecting fuel, fertiliser and industrial imports that traditionally move through Gulf transshipment hubs serving Africa’s east coast.
The crisis is now pushing governments, banks and regional trade institutions to rethink long-term trade strategies, with growing emphasis on intra-African trade, regional logistics corridors and alternative global markets.
TradeMark Africa deputy chief executive Allen Asiimwe said the disruption was already reshaping regional trade flows and encouraging East African economies to identify new commercial partnerships beyond traditional supply networks.
According to Asiimwe, East Africa is actively exploring stronger trade ties with Asian economies such as China, which recently expanded zero-tariff access to exports from 53 African countries. Regional economies are also seeking to deepen trade engagement with European markets while increasing the role of intra-African commerce.
Financial institutions say the shift is becoming increasingly visible across regional trade activity. Stanbic Bank Kenya head of trade Phanice Mokua noted that East Africa is now discovering alternative trade corridors that were not widely utilised two years ago, particularly as companies seek more resilient logistics solutions.
The changing trade environment is also creating momentum for regional value chains across agriculture, fisheries and manufacturing. Trade experts argue that sectors such as horticulture, fish processing and agro-industrial production could become central to East Africa’s industrialisation strategy if regional logistics systems continue to improve.
Data from the African Export-Import Bank shows intra-African trade reached approximately US$220 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to US$230 billion in 2026. Intra-East African trade alone reached US$7.2 billion in 2024 after recording average annual growth of 11.4% over the past decade.
Consultancy firm Pangea-Risk said the current Gulf crisis is acting as a catalyst for deeper regional integration, particularly around transport and logistics infrastructure.
The Northern Corridor linking Kenya’s Port of Mombasa to inland markets, alongside the Central Corridor connecting Tanzania’s Port of Dar es Salaam to neighbouring economies, are increasingly viewed as critical trade arteries for East and Central Africa.
Investment in regional infrastructure is also accelerating. French shipping group CMA CGM recently announced an US$820 million investment to modernise and expand terminals at the Port of Mombasa to improve cargo handling capacity and regional logistics efficiency.
Energy security has emerged as another major priority. African governments are increasingly investing in domestic refining and energy infrastructure to reduce dependence on imported fuel products from Gulf suppliers.
In Nigeria, the Dangote Refinery has significantly increased production capacity, allowing the country to expand refined fuel exports across African markets. Discussions around a potential second refinery project in Kenya are also gaining attention as East Africa looks to strengthen regional energy resilience.
Meanwhile, Angola’s Cabinda refinery has ramped up production amid higher regional fuel demand, while Uganda continues preparations for its planned US$4 billion Hoima refinery project backed by UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments.
Analysts believe these investments reflect a broader shift toward African industrialisation and regional self-sufficiency as governments seek to reduce vulnerability to external geopolitical shocks.
The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa estimates that full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area could increase intra-African exports by 45% by 2045, adding more than US$275 billion in new trade opportunities, particularly in industrial goods and agrifood products.
Business leaders say the current disruption offers East Africa an opportunity to improve long-term competitiveness by reducing trade costs, strengthening manufacturing capacity and creating a more.