China’s decision to extend its zero-tariff policy to almost all African countries has been widely welcomed as a potential game-changer for Africa–China trade relations. Announced in mid-2025, the move grants duty-free access to Chinese markets for exports from African nations, with the sole exception of Eswatini due to diplomatic considerations.
On the surface, the policy appears decisively pro-Africa. In theory, removing tariffs should improve African export competitiveness, expand market access, and help rebalance a trade relationship long criticised for its asymmetries. In practice, however, the impact is likely to be more complex—and more limited—unless deeper structural issues are addressed.
A Persistent Trade Imbalance
Despite popular perceptions, China has consistently run a trade surplus with Africa since 2015. While African exports to China have grown, imports from China have expanded even faster, leaving the continent with a collective trade deficit estimated at around US$60 billion.
The composition of trade explains much of this imbalance. African exports to China remain overwhelmingly dominated by minerals, raw materials, and semi-processed inputs. By 2023, mineral resources accounted for roughly 40% of China’s imports from Africa, with non-edible raw materials and resource-based manufactures making up most of the remainder. High-value manufactured goods and technology-intensive products remain largely absent from Africa’s export basket.
This structure has proven remarkably resilient, even as Beijing has repeatedly stated its support for African industrialisation.
Agriculture: Progress, But Marginal
Agricultural exports have received particular attention in recent years. Through initiatives such as the “Green Channel” announced under the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC), China has simplified customs procedures and reduced barriers for African agricultural products.
These measures have delivered some gains. By 2023, China–Africa agricultural trade reached US$9.35 billion, representing year-on-year growth. Yet agriculture still accounted for just 3.3% of total bilateral trade. In other words, while agricultural exports are growing, they remain peripheral to the overall trade relationship and have not altered its structural imbalance.
Zero Tariffs Are Not a Structural Solution
The central limitation of the zero-tariff policy is that tariff barriers were never the main obstacle to Africa’s export diversification. Capacity constraints, weak industrial bases, limited processing infrastructure, fragmented logistics, and inadequate standards compliance continue to restrict Africa’s ability to export higher-value goods—regardless of tariff preferences.
Without parallel investment in industrial upgrading, skills development, and supply-chain integration, duty-free access risks reinforcing Africa’s role as a supplier of raw materials rather than enabling a shift toward value-added production.
The Strategic Opportunity: Investment, Not Just Exports
Where the zero-tariff policy could prove transformative is not in boosting raw-material exports, but in reshaping investment flows.
In an era of trade fragmentation and rising tariffs elsewhere, Africa’s zero-tariff access to China offers a strategic incentive for manufacturers to relocate or establish processing and assembly operations on the continent. For companies seeking cost-effective entry into the Chinese market, Africa could emerge as a production base rather than merely a source of inputs.
Such a shift would bring foreign direct investment, technology transfer, workforce training, and deeper participation in global value chains. Crucially, it would move Africa closer to industrialisation rather than entrenching extractive trade patterns.
What Africa Must Do
Realising this opportunity will require proactive African policy choices. Governments must treat the zero-tariff regime not as an export subsidy, but as leverage—using it to attract investment into agro-processing, manufacturing, digital trade, and logistics hubs.
That means improving infrastructure, aligning industrial policy with trade incentives, strengthening standards institutions, and ensuring regulatory predictability. It also means positioning African economies as reliable, competitive nodes in reconfigured global supply chains.
A Tool, Not a Panacea
China’s zero-tariff policy is not meaningless—but neither is it a silver bullet. On its own, it will not rebalance Africa–China trade or deliver structural transformation. Used strategically, however, it can become a powerful instrument to attract investment, accelerate industrialisation, and reposition Africa within the global economy.
In a world of trade wars and supply-chain realignment, preferential access to the Chinese market is a valuable asset. Whether Africa converts that asset into long-term growth will depend less on tariffs—and more on choices made at home.