Kigali, 2025 (ECA) — Eastern African economies are showing unexpected strength in global trade, with exports surging despite widespread geopolitical uncertainty and sweeping U.S. tariffs. According to new data from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), several countries in the region have not only weathered recent disruptions but significantly expanded their export volumes.
Unexpected Gains in U.S. Trade
Following the implementation of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariff package in April 2025—which imposed duties of up to 30% on major Asian exporters—Eastern African countries have seen a notable increase in exports to the United States. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) led the region, boosting its U.S. exports by over $1 billion between April and July compared to the same period in 2024.
Ethiopia and Kenya followed with impressive growth rates of 95% and 22%, respectively. These gains are largely attributed to trade diversion effects and sustained U.S. demand for regional commodities. While Eastern Africa faced some tariff exposure, rates were significantly lower—just 10% for Ethiopia and Kenya—compared to 30% for China, whose exports to the U.S. dropped by 35.6% year-on-year.
Regional Trade Accelerates
Intra-African trade is also gaining momentum. In 2024, East African Community (EAC) trade surpassed $11 billion for the first time, marking a 22% increase from 2023. Intra-African exports rose by 8.5%, far outpacing the 0.4% growth in exports to non-African markets. Agricultural products and manufactured goods—including textiles, chemicals, cement, and pharmaceuticals—are driving this growth, underscoring the potential of regional value chains and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Commodity Prices Fuel Export Boom
Global commodity trends have further boosted the region’s performance. Gold prices surged over 60% between January 2024 and July 2025, while coffee prices nearly doubled. Tanzania and Uganda capitalized on the gold rally, with Uganda also posting strong exports of coffee, tea, fish, and flowers. Kenya’s tea exports reached a record $1.7 billion in 2024, up from $1.4 billion the previous year.
Structural Weaknesses Remain
Despite these gains, the region faces persistent structural challenges. Mineral exports now account for 53% of Eastern Africa’s total exports, while the share of manufactured goods has declined to just 17.5%—highlighting the need for economic diversification and industrial development.
Strategic Policy and Infrastructure Moves
Governments across the region are responding with targeted interventions. Kenya launched Phase II of the Dongo Kundu Special Economic Zone, Tanzania completed the expansion of Tanga Port and initiated new agricultural corridors, and Uganda signed a bilateral agreement with Kenya to eliminate non-tariff barriers. Rwanda is developing the Rusizi Port to strengthen regional logistics, while Ethiopia is upgrading the Moyale One-Stop Border Post and expanding industrial parks.
Preparing for a Post-AGOA Future
With uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Eastern Africa is being urged to diversify its export markets and deepen intra-African trade. UNECA’s latest findings offer a roadmap for resilience, but long-term competitiveness will depend on reducing commodity dependence, revitalizing manufacturing, and accelerating regional integration.
UNECA’s Subregional Office for East Africa serves 14 countries: Burundi, Comoros, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Seychelles, Somalia, South Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda.