Africa witnessed a 5.6% drop in the value of its commodity exports between 2021 and 2023, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). The decline, outlined in the newly released State of Commodity Dependence 2025 report, stems largely from falling oil prices and diminished export volumes in Algeria, Angola, and Nigeria.
Meanwhile, Asia and Oceania accounted for 37.1% of global commodity exports during the same period, with Western Asian nations—led by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia—contributing over half of that figure.
The downturn in African exports is attributed to a 20% slide in average oil prices alongside significant output reductions from its major producers. UNCTAD emphasized that this underlines the continent’s enduring exposure to market volatility and external economic shocks.
Commodity Dependence Undermines Economic Resilience
The report revealed that more than two-thirds of developing countries—95 out of 143—remained highly dependent on commodity exports between 2021 and 2023. Among these, over 80% are classified as least developed countries. UNCTAD cautioned that such dependence limits diversification and economic resilience.
While commodities still account for roughly one-third of global trade, their share has declined over the past decade. From 2012–2014 to 2021–2023, global merchandise trade grew by 25.6%, whereas commodity exports rose at a slower rate of just 15.5%.
Sector Breakdown: Energy Shrinks, Agriculture and Mining Surge
Energy products retained their lead as the largest segment of global commodity exports, representing 44.5% of the total trade from 2021 to 2023—down from 52.1% a decade earlier. This reflects shifting global energy dynamics and price pressures.
Agricultural exports jumped by 34% to nearly $2.3 trillion, with food products accounting for 90% of the value. Mining commodities, including metals, minerals, and ores, comprised 23% of global commodity exports, averaging $1.65 trillion annually—a 33.4% increase from the previous decade.
Strategic Recommendation
UNCTAD advises developing economies—particularly those exporting over 80% of their commodities in raw form—to pursue value addition. The report highlights that enhancing domestic processing capacity is key to strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability to global shocks.
In a related update, UNCTAD’s Global Trade Update July 2025 flagged lagging trade performance and digital participation in developing countries. Imports by advanced economies rose 4% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, while those by developing nations, including Nigeria, declined.