Nigeria’s exports to other African countries rose sharply to N10.72tn in the first half of 2026, increasing 122.26 per cent from N4.82tn recorded during the same period in 2025. However, analysts say the headline growth needs to be viewed alongside the naira’s depreciation and the growing dominance of petroleum products.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ foreign trade reports for the first two quarters of 2026 indicates that crude petroleum, refined petroleum products, gas products, electricity and urea accounted for an estimated 94.75 per cent of Nigeria’s exports to Africa during the period. Their combined value was about N10.15tn, compared with approximately N4.35tn in H1 2025.
The oil and gas value chain therefore grew by about 133.36 per cent year-on-year, outpacing the overall increase in exports to Africa.
The figures highlight the growing influence of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which has expanded Nigeria’s capacity to supply refined petroleum products to markets across the continent. Trade experts have identified refined fuels and petrochemicals as major contributors to the recent increase.
At the same time, identifiable non-oil export categories showed a contrasting trend. Products including cement, cigarettes, tyres, vessels and food preparations declined in combined value from approximately N309.46bn in H1 2025 to N296.61bn in H1 2026.
Their share of Nigeria’s exports to Africa also fell from 6.42 per cent to 2.77 per cent.
The figures have renewed debate over what economists describe as the “naira illusion” — a situation where trade values appear to rise substantially in local currency because of exchange-rate depreciation and inflation, without a corresponding increase in the real or dollar value of exports.
Economic Associates CEO Dr Ayo Teriba cautioned against interpreting the naira-denominated figures in isolation, arguing that a weaker currency can significantly increase the reported naira value of the same dollar-denominated trade.
Teriba also acknowledged the role of the Dangote refinery in expanding Nigeria’s trade with African markets, saying that separating refinery-related exports would provide a clearer picture of underlying export performance.
Trade and supply chain specialist Marcel Mba, CEO of Alpine Supply Chain Solutions, similarly attributed much of the recent increase to refined petroleum products and petrochemicals. He said it would be unrealistic to attribute a substantial portion of the more than 100 per cent increase to non-oil exports alone.
Mba pointed to products such as cement, beverages, vehicles manufactured by Innoson Motors and floor tiles as potential contributors to Nigeria’s non-oil exports, while stressing the need for more detailed trade data.
A stronger manufacturing base remains central to Nigeria’s efforts to expand intra-African trade. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group has highlighted the limited contribution of manufactured goods to exports, noting that their share of Nigeria’s total exports declined from 4.3 per cent in Q3 2025 to 1.4 per cent in Q1 2026.
Manufactured goods accounted for only 0.9 per cent of Nigeria’s intra-African trade in Q1 2026, according to the think tank.
Nigeria’s exports to Africa have nevertheless undergone a major increase in nominal naira terms since 2020. Exports stood at N1.38tn in H1 2020 before declining to N963bn in H1 2021 and N904.05bn in H1 2022. They recovered to N1.31tn in H1 2023, rose to N4.21tn in H1 2024 and reached N4.82tn in H1 2025 before the latest jump to N10.72tn.
The challenge for Nigeria is now to convert rising regional trade into broader export diversification, greater domestic value addition and stronger manufacturing capacity. Expanding non-oil exports would also be important if the country is to capture more of the opportunities presented by the African Continental Free Trade Area.