Higher merchandise export volumes helped strengthen South Africa’s business confidence in July, although inflation, commodity-price volatility and crude-oil risks continued to weigh on the economic outlook.
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (SACCI) Business Confidence Index rose 1.9 points month on month to 125.4 in July, standing 8.7 points above its level a year earlier.
SACCI said the index appeared to have stabilised after a sharp decline in April.
Exports Support Business Confidence
Higher merchandise export volumes made one of the largest positive contributions to the July reading, alongside increased new-vehicle sales and lower energy prices.
Higher merchandise imports also supported confidence compared with the same period in 2025.
However, rising inflation and a monthly decline in global precious-metal prices offset some of these gains. Precious-metal prices had supported South Africa’s trade performance over the year, while higher crude-oil prices remained a concern.
The impact of the sharp oil-price increase recorded in April had eased by July, but SACCI warned that oil-market volatility remained a risk to international trade and the domestic business environment.
Economic Risks Remain
Agricultural producers also faced uncertainty around market access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), with exporters negotiating arrangements for specific products.
Improved creditworthiness and stronger investment ratings provided some support to business confidence. However, slow economic growth, persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy continued to constrain the broader business environment.
The July improvement suggests stronger trade activity is providing some support to South African businesses, but sustained gains will depend on managing domestic economic pressures and external commodity and energy risks.
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