Africa’s growing appetite for milk and dairy products is widening the gap between domestic production and consumption, leaving major markets such as Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal and Zimbabwe increasingly exposed to imports, global price volatility and high production costs.
The 2025 African Agriculture Barometer on the dairy value chain, produced by FARM Foundation, Afdi and the Pan-African Farmers’ Organization (PAFO), found that Africa imported approximately $7.5 billion worth of dairy products in 2023, compared with exports of just $1.1 billion. This resulted in a dairy trade deficit of about $6.4 billion.
Milk powder, fat-filled milk powder and infant formula accounted for 76% of the continent’s dairy imports, highlighting the scale of Africa’s dependence on imported dairy products.
Africa’s Dairy Production Gap
African milk production has increased significantly over the past decade, rising 17% from 45.5 million tonnes in 2013 to 53.2 million tonnes in 2023.
However, Africa’s share of global milk production remained at around 5% because global production expanded at a faster rate.
The supply gap leaves consumers vulnerable to international dairy prices and disruptions in global supply chains. Rising international milk-powder prices can quickly translate into higher prices for consumers across African markets.
Nigeria provides one of the clearest examples of the challenge.
A 2026 study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, using FAOSTAT data, estimated that Nigeria produced approximately 527,000 tonnes of milk in 2022, while importing 927,000 tonnes. The country exported only around 3,000 tonnes, meaning imports accounted for approximately 64% of available milk supply.
The pressure is also being felt at retail level. National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the average price of a 150-gram tin of Peak evaporated milk increased to ₦1,055.15 in April 2026, from ₦994.19 in February.
Nigeria Targets Higher Domestic Milk Production
The Nigerian government is seeking greater private-sector investment as it attempts to reduce the country’s estimated $1.5 billion annual dairy import bill.
Minister of Livestock Development Idi Mukhtar Maiha said the objective is to develop a sustainable domestic dairy industry rather than simply increasing cattle imports.
Under a proposed dairy public-private partnership, Hillview Ranch Enterprises Limited plans to introduce 60,000 pregnant or lactating dairy cattle in phases, beginning with 2,500 animals.
The programme is projected to produce approximately 229.5 million litres of milk annually. Meanwhile, the government is targeting an increase in national milk production from around 700,000 tonnes to 1.4 million tonnes within five years.
Experts, however, say increasing the number of cattle will not be enough. Improvements in genetics, animal health, productivity, electricity and cold-storage infrastructure will also be required.
Egypt, Senegal And Zimbabwe Face Similar Pressures
Nigeria is not alone in facing the dairy supply challenge.
Egypt produced approximately 5.72 million tonnes of milk in 2022 but imported around 2.2 million tonnes. UN Comtrade data also showed that Egypt imported 23,620 tonnes of unsweetened solid milk and cream worth $106.52 million in 2025.
In Senegal, high production and distribution costs continue to affect consumers, with regular milk in Dakar averaging approximately 1,528 CFA francs per litre in May 2026.
Zimbabwe has made progress in rebuilding its dairy sector, with its commercial dairy herd increasing 7.5% to 70,584 cattle in 2025. Milk production also increased 6.2% to 121.85 million litres.
However, profitability remains a major concern. Production costs stood at approximately $0.63 per litre, compared with an average producer price of $0.58. Retail UHT milk averaged $1.35 per litre.
Local Processing Key to Reducing Imports
The figures across these markets suggest that increasing milk production alone will not solve Africa’s dairy challenge.
The continent also needs greater investment in dairy processing, cold-chain infrastructure, animal genetics, veterinary services and market systems.
Without these improvements, higher production may not translate into lower consumer prices or greater farmer profitability.
For Africa to reduce its dependence on imported dairy products, strengthening the entire value chain—from livestock production and milk collection to processing, storage and distribution—will be critical.