South Africa is preparing to expand its soybean exports after forecasting its largest harvest on record, with China emerging as a promising new market following improved trade access for African agricultural products.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), the country’s growing soybean surplus could support exports to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year, provided domestic demand is first satisfied and the necessary export approvals are secured.
The Crop Estimates Committee projects South Africa’s soybean production will reach 3 million tonnes in 2026, representing a 7% increase over the previous season and marking the highest soybean harvest in the country’s history.
The larger crop is expected to strengthen export volumes. Grain SA forecasts soybean exports of approximately 280,000 tonnes during the 2026/2027 marketing year, up from 245,000 tonnes in the previous season.
China has become an increasingly attractive destination after introducing duty-free access on 100% of tariff lines for imports from 53 African countries, including South Africa, under the China-Africa Framework for Shared Prosperity, which came into effect on 1 May 2026.
Sihlobo said the agreement presents a significant opportunity to expand South Africa’s agricultural exports beyond traditional markets.
“We want to strengthen our access to the Chinese market for many agricultural products. The recently signed China-Africa Framework for Shared Prosperity, which reduces tariffs on goods to zero, provides us with a tremendous opportunity for access for a wide variety of agricultural products,” he said.
Despite the favourable trade conditions, South Africa must still obtain the required Chinese phytosanitary and health approvals before soybean exports can begin. The country will also need to demonstrate that it can supply consistent, high-quality volumes capable of competing with established exporters such as Brazil, the United States, Argentina and Uruguay.
China remains the world’s largest soybean importer, purchasing nearly US$50 billion worth of soybeans in 2025, making it a highly attractive long-term export destination.
Historically, South Africa’s soybean exports have been concentrated within the Southern African region. Between 2018 and 2025, the country exported an average of US$100 million worth of soybeans annually, with export earnings peaking at US$389 million in 2022. Major markets included Zimbabwe, Eswatini and Mozambique, while China did not feature among its export destinations.
The positive soybean outlook comes amid another exceptional grain season. South Africa’s 2025/2026 maize harvest is expected to reach a record 17.4 million tonnes, while total grain and oilseed production is projected to increase to 21.5 million tonnes.
The bumper harvests are also contributing to lower food prices. Although South Africa’s overall consumer inflation increased to 5% in June from 3% in February, food inflation declined to 1.4%, its lowest level in almost 16 years.
Sihlobo noted that grains have played a major role in moderating food price inflation, helping to improve affordability for consumers.
According to Corné Louw, Head of Applied Economics at Grain SA, favourable rainfall, together with the adoption of genetically modified crop varieties and precision farming technologies, has been instrumental in delivering the country’s record yields.
As production continues to rise and new international markets open, South Africa is positioning itself to strengthen its role as a competitive agricultural exporter while diversifying its soybean trade beyond regional markets.