South Africa’s agricultural sector faces rising uncertainty as conflict in the Middle East threatens trade flows, yet the region remains too important to ignore. Despite mounting risks linked to higher shipping costs, supply chain disruptions and energy market volatility, the Middle East continues to play a strategic role in the country’s long-term export ambitions.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, the region has consistently accounted for about 8% of South Africa’s agricultural exports over the past five years. In 2025 alone, South Africa exported a record $15.1 billion worth of agricultural products globally, with roughly $1.3 billion destined for Middle Eastern markets.
Key destinations include United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar. These markets import a wide range of South African products, including citrus, apples, grapes, maize, beef and nuts—commodities where South Africa has strong export capacity.
The current conflict is already pushing up shipping and logistics costs, complicating export planning just as key harvest seasons begin. Producers are exploring alternative markets such as China, India and Singapore, as well as traditional partners like the European Union and the United Kingdom. However, shifting volumes at scale is neither immediate nor simple, especially for perishable goods.
Even with diversification efforts underway, abandoning the Middle East would be a strategic misstep. The region represents not just a current export destination, but a major long-term growth opportunity. South Africa’s market share in these countries remains relatively small, leaving significant room for expansion once stability returns.
For example, Saudi Arabia imports around $29 billion in agricultural products annually, yet South Africa accounts for only about 1% of that total. Similarly, the United Arab Emirates imports roughly $23 billion in agricultural goods, with South Africa holding just a 2% share. In Qatar, South Africa’s share is also around 2%, despite strong demand for imported food.
These figures highlight a key point: South Africa is still a relatively small player in a large and growing market. That creates an opportunity to scale exports, particularly in products such as fruits, grains and meat, where the country already has competitive advantages.
Competition in the region remains intense, with major suppliers including Brazil, Australia, the United States and Canada. To grow its presence, South Africa will need targeted marketing, stronger trade relationships and continued efforts to address phytosanitary barriers.
While the conflict introduces short-term disruption, it does not change the structural importance of the Middle East to South Africa’s agricultural export strategy. In fact, maintaining engagement during periods of instability could position South African exporters more favourably when markets stabilise and reconstruction begins.
In this context, the challenge is not whether to exit the Middle East market, but how to manage risk while maintaining a foothold. For South Africa’s agricultural sector, the region remains a critical pillar for future export growth, even in uncertain times.