South Africa’s agricultural exports to the United States showed resilience in 2025, but underlying data suggests that this stability may prove short-lived as higher tariffs begin to bite more fully.
A review of 2025 trade figures indicates that the impact of the US’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs was felt most acutely in the third and final quarters of the year. Export volumes weakened sharply during this period, reflecting rising costs and reduced competitiveness for several key product categories.
Despite this late-year decline, front-loading by exporters earlier in the year helped cushion the annual outcome. In the second quarter of 2025, many South African producers accelerated shipments to the US ahead of tariff implementation, supporting overall export values.
As a result, South Africa’s agricultural exports to the United States reached about $504 million in 2025—only 3% lower than the previous year.
However, this modest annual decline masks the growing pressure facing the sector.
Tariff pressure set to intensify
The current figures do not fully reflect the longer-term effects of the 30% Liberation Day tariffs, as a significant portion of exports occurred before the new trade regime took hold. A clearer picture is expected to emerge in 2026, when trade flows will reflect a full year under the revised tariff structure.
While certain products—including oranges, nuts and fruit juices—have been exempted or granted modified tariff treatment, a wide range of South Africa’s key agricultural exports remain exposed. These include other citrus products, table grapes, wine, raisins, ostrich products and several processed agricultural goods.
For these categories, higher duties are already eroding margins and raising questions about future market share in the US.
AGOA relief, but limited protection
Earlier optimism around the one-year extension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has provided only partial reassurance. While the extension prevents tariffs from rising to as high as 33%, it does not remove the current 30% rate now applied to many products.
Notably, the pre–Liberation Day tariff for some South African agricultural exports stood at around 3%, meaning the current regime represents a tenfold increase in duties for affected exporters.
2026 as a turning point
The contrast between relatively stable headline figures and deteriorating quarterly performance underscores the fragility of South Africa’s agricultural trade position in the US market. Without broader exemptions or improved trade terms, exporters may struggle to sustain volumes in 2026, particularly in high-value horticultural and wine segments.
As global trade tensions persist and preferential access becomes more conditional, South Africa’s agricultural sector faces growing urgency to diversify export markets, deepen value addition, and strengthen resilience against policy-driven shocks in key destination markets.