South Africa is expected to significantly increase maize exports during the 2026/2027 marketing season as strong harvests, ample carryover stocks and rising regional demand strengthen the country’s position as Africa’s leading maize exporter.
According to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa, maize exports could reach approximately 3 million tonnes during the season that began in May, representing a 50% increase from the 2 million tonnes exported in the previous marketing year.
The export outlook follows another robust domestic harvest, with the Agricultural Business Chamber (Agbiz) estimating South Africa’s 2025/2026 maize crop at approximately 16.8 million tonnes, slightly above the previous season’s output.
Combined with substantial carryover stocks from earlier years, the improved harvest is expected to generate a sizeable export surplus.
Regional Demand Expected to Remain Strong
South Africa consumes roughly 12 million tonnes of maize annually, leaving a significant volume available for export to regional and international markets.
Sihlobo noted that neighbouring Southern African countries are likely to remain key buyers as drought risks linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon threaten agricultural production across parts of the region.
“Sustained demand could emerge from Southern Africa, as some countries are likely to face drought episodes linked to the El Niño phenomenon, which could reduce their harvests in the next agricultural season,” he said.
Zimbabwe remained South Africa’s largest maize export destination during the 2025/2026 season, accounting for approximately 39% of total shipments, or nearly 780,770 tonnes.
Export Recovery After Recent Decline
The projected increase could mark a turnaround for South Africa’s maize export industry after several years of declining shipments.
Agbiz data shows maize exports fell from a peak of 4.1 million tonnes during the 2021/2022 season to approximately 2 million tonnes in 2025/2026.
Industry analysts attribute much of the decline to weaker demand from Far East markets, where South African maize has faced growing competition from lower-cost global suppliers.
“This situation has reduced the need to import maize from a supplier as far away as South Africa,” Sihlobo explained.
The Agricultural Business Chamber is now advocating for maize to feature more prominently in South Africa’s agricultural export promotion strategy as the country seeks to diversify and expand global market access.
Strategic Contributor to Agricultural Trade
Maize remains a critical component of South Africa’s agricultural economy and export sector.
In 2025, maize exports generated approximately US$760 million in revenue, contributing around 5% of the country’s total agricultural export earnings.
The expected rise in exports could further strengthen South Africa’s role as a strategic food supplier to the Southern African region while supporting farm incomes and broader agricultural trade growth.