Global uranium reserves could be exhausted by the 2080s if demand for nuclear energy continues expanding at its current pace, the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency warned in a report released Tuesday.
The agencies’ biennial Red Book says demand for uranium is surging as countries and companies turn to nuclear power to reduce fossil fuel use and support the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI)-related power-hungry data centres. Without major new investment in uranium exploration and mining, supply may not keep up.
While the report concludes that enough uranium exists to support a “high-growth” scenario through 2050 and beyond, it stresses that unlocking those resources will require significant spending on exploration, mining operations, and new processing techniques.
Under that high-growth outlook, global nuclear capacity would rise 130% by 2050 compared to 2022 levels. However, that estimate is based on policies and data available at the start of 2023 — before a wave of renewed interest in nuclear energy by both governments and the private sector.
East Asia is expected to see the largest growth, with capacity potentially increasing by up to 220% over the 111 gigawatts of nuclear power it had at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, countries including the US, UK, South Korea and 20 others have pledged to triple global nuclear capacity by mid-century to help meet net-zero targets.
From the region, Iran is by far the country with the most capacity to increase uranium output, the report shows. The nation could up its ore production by almost four times, reaching 71 tonnes this year, according to the report.
In addition to the current Ardakan uranium production facility in Yazd Province, feasibility studies are underway for the development of the Narigan production centre, also located in the same province.
Iran has always maintained that its uranium enrichment activities are for peaceful purposes. Last year, however, the US-based Institute for Science and International Security said that while Iran’s uranium resources could support a nuclear weapons arsenal, they are insufficient to fuel its growing nuclear power reactors.
Private sector investment is also climbing. Tech giants including Google, Amazon and Meta are betting on nuclear, investing heavily in the sector to power the next generation of energy-intensive data centres fuelling AI development.
The International Energy Agency said in January that nuclear power has entered “a new era,” with interest at its highest level since the 1970s oil shocks.
The agency noted that annual nuclear investment rose nearly 50% between 2020 and 2023.