South Africa’s two leading bakkie manufacturers, Toyota and Ford, are facing a sharp decline in vehicle exports as weaker demand for conventional petrol and diesel models combines with growing competition from Chinese electric and hybrid brands.
National Automobile Association of South Africa data shows Toyota exported 28,799 vehicles during the first seven months of 2026, down 26.7% from 39,285 during the same period in 2025.
Ford South Africa recorded an even steeper decline, with exports falling 40.1% to 23,336 units from 38,973 a year earlier. Isuzu was the only major bakkie manufacturer to record export growth, increasing shipments by 24.1% to 3,714 vehicles.
Nissan, which recently ended local manufacturing, exported 3,211 vehicles in the period, down 30.6%. Bakkies account for a significant portion of these exports and have traditionally benefited from strong demand in international markets because of their durability, carrying capacity and established parts networks.
However, demand patterns are changing rapidly in several key markets, including Australia, Europe, the United Kingdom and New Zealand. Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, Chery, Geely, GWM and MG are gaining market share with competitively priced plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles.
Australia provides one of the clearest examples. Toyota’s sales fell 21.4% year on year in the first half of 2026 to 95,141 vehicles, while Ford’s sales declined 10.6% to 42,296 units. BYD, meanwhile, increased its Australian sales by 124.1% year to date.
GWM and Chery have also recorded strong growth in Australia, with sales rising 20.5% and 76.8%, respectively. In June, BYD came within 243 vehicles of Toyota’s monthly sales, highlighting how quickly Chinese brands are challenging established manufacturers.
South African vehicle exports are showing a mixed picture. Volkswagen increased exports by 16.7% to 77,724 units in the first seven months of 2026, while BMW rose 6.5% to 45,117. Mercedes-Benz declined 7% to 34,800, alongside the sharper falls recorded by Toyota, Ford and Nissan.
The longer-term challenge is the transition to electric mobility. South African factories remain heavily exposed to conventional internal-combustion vehicles, while major export markets are increasingly moving towards electrified models. Ford has invested heavily in its Silverton plant to produce the Ranger PHEV, but the model is facing strong competition from Chinese alternatives such as the BYD Shark and GWM Cannon PHEV.
Toyota has also introduced an electric bakkie in Australia and New Zealand, although its pricing and specifications face increasing competition from Chinese models.
One positive development for South Africa is Chery’s takeover of Nissan’s Rosslyn plant in Pretoria. The Chinese automaker plans to produce several models locally, including the Tiggo 4 Pro, Tiggo Cross, Jetour T1, Jetour T2 and Jaecoo J5, while also exploring production of new-energy vehicles.
The shift highlights a growing challenge for South Africa’s automotive industry: maintaining its position as a major vehicle export hub while adapting production to a global market increasingly dominated by electric vehicles and increasingly competitive Chinese manufacturers.