South Africa’s coal export industry is showing renewed signs of recovery as improving rail performance enables higher export volumes through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), one of the world’s largest coal export facilities.
Industry forecasts indicate coal exports could surpass 60 million tonnes in 2026, marking a third consecutive year of growth after years of logistics disruptions that significantly constrained exports.
The improvement reflects progress in rail operations rather than expanded port capacity, highlighting the importance of reliable transport infrastructure in restoring South Africa’s competitiveness in global coal markets.
Rail Performance Drives Export Growth
While Richards Bay Coal Terminal has the capacity to export approximately 91 million tonnes annually, actual throughput has remained well below that level due to limitations on the rail network linking Mpumalanga’s coalfields to the KwaZulu-Natal coast.
Export volumes fell to a multi-year low of just over 47 million tonnes in 2023 following persistent locomotive shortages, cable theft, vandalism, derailments and maintenance challenges.
Since then, exports have steadily recovered, reaching around 52 million tonnes in 2024 and nearly 58 million tonnes in 2025, with 2026 expected to continue the upward trend.
The gradual recovery has been supported by improved locomotive availability, better maintenance planning and enhanced security along the critical coal corridor.
Investment In Rail Infrastructure Paying Off
One of the biggest contributors to the recovery has been the deployment of 102 new Alstom locomotives, strengthening Transnet Freight Rail’s ability to transport coal consistently from inland mines to Richards Bay.
The improved fleet has reduced delays and increased train frequency, allowing more coal to reach export terminals.
Security measures aimed at combating cable theft and vandalism have also helped improve operational reliability, reducing disruptions that previously affected rail services.
Mining companies have welcomed the progress, noting that a more dependable logistics network provides greater certainty for production planning and export commitments.
Richards Bay Still Has Significant Untapped Capacity
Despite the recent recovery, Richards Bay Coal Terminal continues to operate well below its design capacity.
Even if exports reach 62 million tonnes this year, the terminal would still be operating at less than 70% of its maximum throughput, leaving considerable room for future growth.
Industry experts believe that sustained improvements in rail efficiency could unlock millions of additional tonnes of export capacity without requiring major expansion of port infrastructure.
The key challenge remains ensuring that rail deliveries continue to improve over the long term.
Asia Remains South Africa’s Largest Coal Market
Asian countries continue to dominate demand for South African thermal coal, with India remaining the largest export destination.
Strong electricity demand, industrial growth and energy security continue to support coal imports across several Asian economies despite accelerating investment in renewable energy.
Benchmark thermal coal prices have stabilised at around US$103 per tonne, providing producers with sustainable operating margins, although prices remain well below the record highs experienced during the global energy crisis in 2022.
The more stable pricing environment is allowing mining companies to focus on production efficiency and long-term investment rather than responding to short-term market volatility.
Logistics Remain Critical to Mining Growth
The recovery in coal exports demonstrates the importance of efficient logistics to South Africa’s broader mining industry.
Coal, iron ore and manganese producers all depend heavily on reliable rail infrastructure to move bulk commodities from inland operations to export terminals.
Government and industry continue to prioritise reforms aimed at improving freight rail performance, reducing infrastructure bottlenecks and encouraging greater private sector participation in logistics.
These efforts are expected to play an increasingly important role in strengthening South Africa’s position as one of Africa’s leading mining exporters.
Positive Outlook for 2026
While challenges remain, the outlook for South Africa’s coal exports has improved considerably compared with recent years.
Continued investment in rail infrastructure, stronger operational management and improved security are helping restore confidence across the coal value chain.
If current momentum continues through the second half of 2026, South Africa could record its strongest coal export performance in several years, reinforcing the country’s role as a key supplier to global energy markets while supporting export earnings and employment across the mining sector.