Kenya’s external trade structure in 2025 showed increasing reliance on African and European markets, even as a sharp slowdown in Asian demand and rising import dependence contributed to a widening trade deficit.
According to data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), total exports rose modestly to KSh 1.685 trillion, supported mainly by agriculture, while imports surged to KSh 3.063 trillion—driven by machinery, fuel, steel, and industrial inputs.
Africa remains Kenya’s export anchor
Africa continued to be the backbone of Kenya’s export earnings, with total exports to the continent rising 6.4% to KSh 452.8 billion in 2025.
The East African Community (EAC) accounted for the bulk of this trade, absorbing 77.6% of exports to Africa. Uganda remained Kenya’s largest single export destination, with shipments growing 28.8% to KSh 162.4 billion.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) also posted strong growth, with exports rising 16.8% to KSh 37.1 billion, driven by consumer goods and re-exports. South Africa recorded a 17.9% increase in imports from Kenya, alongside gains in Zambia and other regional markets.
Europe supports export diversification
Europe emerged as the second major pillar of export resilience, expanding to KSh 264 billion in 2025 from KSh 246.9 billion the previous year.
Growth was driven by Western European markets, particularly Italy, Belgium, France, and Germany. Export gains were largely anchored in higher-value agricultural products such as coffee, macadamia nuts, tea, and vegetable oils.
Eastern European demand also strengthened, with Kazakhstan nearly doubling its imports from Kenya, largely due to tea shipments.
Asia weakens as key markets contract
In contrast, Asia recorded a significant decline in demand for Kenyan exports, falling 13.2% to KSh 275.7 billion.
Major markets including China, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, India, and Yemen all posted notable contractions. The decline was attributed to reduced shipments of tea, titanium ores, macadamia nuts, and re-exported fuel products.
Exports to the Americas also fell by 4.4%, with the United States remaining the largest market despite a 10.3% drop in demand.
Imports deepen structural imbalance
Kenya’s import profile became increasingly concentrated in Asia, which accounted for 70% of total imports in 2025, up from 66.4% the previous year.
China remained Kenya’s largest source of imports at KSh 671.2 billion, supplying machinery, steel, fertilizers, and industrial inputs.
Other key suppliers included India, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, with petroleum products, industrial equipment, and manufactured goods dominating import flows.
Trade deficit continues to widen
The widening gap between exports and imports pushed Kenya’s current account deficit to KSh 373.3 billion in 2025, up from KSh 285.5 billion the previous year.
Remittance inflows also declined, further tightening external financial conditions despite modest export growth in agriculture.
While Kenya’s export performance remains anchored in agriculture and regional African trade, the data highlights persistent structural challenges: heavy reliance on imported manufactured goods and vulnerability to shifting demand in Asia.
Economists note that without deeper industrialisation and export diversification into higher-value manufacturing, Kenya’s trade imbalance is likely to remain under pressure even as regional trade within Africa continues to strengthen.