South Africa’s agricultural sector delivered a record-breaking export performance in 2025, generating an estimated R341 million in daily foreign exchange—outpacing the combined earnings of gold and platinum mining. However, a new report by AgriSA warns that this success masks rising vulnerabilities that could threaten long-term growth.
Record Agricultural Exports and Trade Surplus
According to the AgriSA Agriculture Annual Trade Report 2025, the sector achieved significant gains between 2021 and 2025:
- Total agricultural exports reached R266.2 billion, up 8.8% year-on-year
- Imports rose modestly to R141.6 billion (+1.6% y/y)
- Trade surplus hit a record R124.6 billion, a 16.4% increase
Horticulture was the standout performer, generating a net surplus of R128.1 billion, which exceeded the total agricultural trade surplus. However, this was partially offset by a R9 billion agronomy deficit, largely driven by imports of wheat and palm oil.
Citrus Exports Drive Growth—but Pose a Risk
South Africa’s export growth has been heavily driven by citrus, making it a cornerstone of the country’s agricultural success.
Citrus exports contributed approximately R11.8 billion, accounting for 67% of the total increase in the agricultural trade surplus. However, this heavy reliance creates a single-commodity risk at a national level.
With 35% to 40% of citrus exports destined for the EU, any tightening of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations or increased competition could put R10 billion to R20 billion in annual revenue at risk.
Livestock and New Growth Areas Emerge
The livestock sector also posted gains, achieving a R5.6 billion surplus, supported by strong growth in fish and lamb exports.
Lamb exports, in particular, surged by 677% since 2021, reaching R1.16 billion, driven by improved market access, favourable exchange rates, and a stronger global reputation for South African products.
Export Market Diversification Gains Momentum
The report highlights a gradual shift in South Africa’s export strategy as global trade conditions evolve.
While exports to the United States declined due to tariff pressures, growth in other regions helped offset losses:
Russia emerged as a fast-growing market
Saudi Arabia expanded imports, particularly for halal lamb
Trade within Africa rose to R94.4 billion, accounting for 34% of total exports
Meanwhile, exports to China faced pressure due to economic slowdown and ongoing SPS-related challenges.
Despite this diversification, AgriSA cautions that alternative markets are not yet large enough to fully offset disruptions in traditional export destinations.
Rising Trade Barriers and Policy Pressures
The report identifies growing regulatory and geopolitical risks affecting South Africa’s agricultural exports.
Exporters are facing stricter requirements in key markets such as the EU, including:
- Environmental compliance
- Pesticide regulations
- Traceability standards
- Sustainability requirements
These measures, while aligned with global standards, increase compliance costs and may limit market access—particularly for smaller exporters.
The citrus industry is especially exposed, with R23 billion to R29 billion in exports to the EU and UK at risk due to:
- Citrus blackspot disputes
- False codling moth restrictions
- Lower maximum residue limits
- Global Trade Fragmentation Adds Uncertainty
Beyond regulatory pressures, the report highlights increasing geopolitical influence on global trade.
Agricultural exporters now face:
- Political trade disruptions
- Pressure to align with global trade blocs
- Increased exposure to non-commercial risks
However, this fragmentation also presents an opportunity for South Africa to position itself as a reliable alternative supplier in shifting global markets.
Outlook: Growth Potential with Significant Risks
AgriSA projects a wide range of outcomes for South Africa’s agricultural trade surplus by 2028:
- Optimistic scenario: R165–R180 billion (favourable trade, strong logistics, good weather)
- Base case: R135–R150 billion (moderate growth and manageable risks)
- Downside scenario: R85–R105 billion (trade restrictions, disease outbreaks, poor logistics)
Key risk factors include:
- Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks
- Port inefficiencies
- Climate variability (El Niño/La Niña)
- Trade policy shifts
- Protecting Growth in a Volatile Environment
AgriSA emphasizes the need for a defensive strategy to protect existing gains before pursuing expansion.
Priority actions include:
- Strengthening biosecurity and disease control
- Improving port and logistics infrastructure
- Enhancing trade diplomacy
- Ensuring compliance with international standards
Critical export segments such as the citrus industry, intra-African trade corridors, and the growing lamb export market must be safeguarded to maintain momentum.
Conclusion
South Africa’s agriculture sector is performing at record levels, but its success is increasingly fragile. Heavy reliance on citrus exports, rising trade barriers, and global uncertainty highlight the need for strategic reforms.
Sustaining growth will depend on the country’s ability to diversify markets, strengthen resilience, and adapt to an evolving global trade environment.