The World Bank has warned that the scheduled expiration of the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in late 2025 could significantly threaten African exports, potentially undermining economic growth across several Sub-Saharan African economies at a time when the region’s recovery remains fragile.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank said economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa edged up to an estimated 4.0% in 2025, from 3.7% in 2024. This modest improvement was supported by easing inflation and stronger-than-expected commodity prices—particularly for gold, other precious metals, and coffee—which helped boost fiscal revenues in a number of countries.
Despite these gains, the Bank cautioned that growth across the region remains uneven and below long-term averages, leaving many economies exposed to external shocks.
Against this backdrop, the potential loss of AGOA represents a major downside risk. For more than two decades, the programme has granted eligible African countries duty-free access to the U.S. market for thousands of products, supporting export-led growth, job creation, and the development of manufacturing and agricultural value chains. Without an extension, the World Bank warned, African exports would lose competitiveness in the U.S. market.
While most Sub-Saharan African economies have limited direct exposure to global trade fragmentation, the report identified several countries that are particularly vulnerable to the loss of AGOA preferences. Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Mauritius, and South Africa were highlighted as economies with a high reliance on the U.S. market for goods and commodity exports.
The Bank noted that, in the absence of AGOA, exports from these countries would face higher tariffs, reducing competitiveness and potentially lowering export volumes. This could have serious consequences for employment, especially in labour-intensive sectors such as textiles, apparel, and agro-processing, where millions of jobs depend on access to external markets.
The warning comes amid broader global trade uncertainty. The World Bank’s baseline projections assume that current bilateral tariff levels remain unchanged, but it cautioned that rising trade barriers or heightened policy uncertainty could further weaken export performance across Sub-Saharan Africa. These risks are compounded by a sharp decline in official development assistance since 2024, which has constrained fiscal space and limited governments’ ability to cushion external shocks.
Looking ahead, the World Bank projects regional growth to strengthen to 4.3% in 2026 and 4.7% in 2027, driven by stronger investment and export performance. However, the Bank stressed that these forecasts hinge on a stable global environment and improved security conditions, particularly in fragile and conflict-affected countries. Failure to extend AGOA, it warned, could derail growth prospects for several export-dependent economies.
Even with the projected recovery, per capita income growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to average just 2% annually in 2026 and 2027—insufficient to absorb the region’s rapidly expanding labour force. With an estimated 270 million youths in the region in 2025, maintaining access to key export markets remains critical.
The World Bank noted that Africa’s growth outlook could improve if AGOA is extended, global growth outperforms expectations, commodity prices remain firm, and regional integration deepens. Expanded duty-free access to China and continued progress under the African Continental Free Trade Area could help mitigate external risks. Nonetheless, the Bank underscored that allowing AGOA to expire without renewal would represent a significant setback for African exports, employment, and poverty reduction efforts.