By Jayden Bagshaw
Nigeria’s exports to African countries rose sharply in the third quarter of 2025, reaching N4.9 trillion—a 97.16 per cent increase compared to the same period in 2024. The surge reflects what analysts describe as a strategic realignment toward emerging markets, particularly intra-African trade and deeper engagement with the BRICS bloc.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics revealed that exports to Africa nearly doubled year-on-year, climbing from N2.49 trillion in Q3 2024. The report also highlighted significant growth in exports to China and Brazil, while shipments to the United States and India declined markedly.
Nigeria’s trade with BRICS countries is expanding rapidly. Exports to China soared by 230.49 per cent, rising to N2.26 trillion from N683.74 billion a year earlier. Exports to Brazil also increased, reaching N446.76 billion compared to N373.61 billion in Q3 2024. In contrast, exports to India fell by more than half, dropping from N1.19 trillion to N560.76 billion. Exports to the United States suffered an even steeper decline, plunging 55.97 per cent to N743.63 billion, down from N1.69 trillion in the same quarter of 2024.
Figures from the United States Census Bureau confirmed the downward trend. Between January and September 2025, US imports of Nigerian goods fell by $552.7 million, dropping from $4.68 billion in 2024 to $4.12 billion. Earlier reports had already noted a decline in US imports between January and May 2025, following the imposition of a 14 per cent tariff on Nigerian exports by President Donald Trump. The tariff has strained bilateral trade ties and cast doubt on the future of agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act.
Stakeholders argue that the shift in trade flows underscores Nigeria’s growing reliance on alternative markets. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, Director-General of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, said the data “provides clear evidence that Nigerian manufacturers and exporters are increasingly pivoting toward BRICS countries.” He explained that diversification has become a necessity, as BRICS markets present fewer barriers and, in some cases, bilateral agreements that ease entry.
Ajayi-Kadir noted that exporters face longer shipping times, higher compliance costs, and currency volatility in US-bound trade, while BRICS countries have shown greater receptivity to Nigerian manufactured goods, agricultural produce, and semi-processed commodities. He stressed that the tariffs “undeniably played a central role” in redirecting trade flows, warning that uncertainty around the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act could further complicate matters.
Dr Chinyere Almona, Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, echoed these concerns, attributing the decline in exports to the US to the tariff war. She described the measures as disruptive, making Nigerian oil and agricultural goods less competitive. Almona said exporters are increasingly shifting to new partners, including BRICS, Turkey, and the UAE, in what she termed “strategic diversification.” She cautioned that unilateral tariffs erode trust in trade relations and urged the Federal Government to reactivate the Nigeria–US Bi-National Commission to address barriers.
Almona also called for exporters to diversify into digital services, creative industries, and green technologies, while recommending that Nigeria ramp up crude oil production to offset potential revenue shortfalls.
Although Nigeria continues to trade with the United States and Europe, the latest data suggests a gradual reorientation of its global trade footprint toward emerging markets, particularly within Africa and the BRICS bloc.