Following a recent meeting of the Orange Focus Group, the Citrus Growers Association (CGA) of South Africa has announced adjustments to its orange export volume predictions. The revised forecast for Navel orange exports has been decreased by 14.5% from initial projections, now totaling 22 million 15 kg cartons. This adjustment signifies an 11% reduction compared to the prior season. Similarly, the forecast for Valencia orange exports has been lowered by 4%, resulting in an expected volume of just over 56 million 15 kg cartons. Navel and Valencia oranges contribute to approximately 17% and 31% of South Africa’s total citrus export volume, respectively.
Key influences on the revised estimates include an uptick in local juice prices, prompting a shift in production towards domestic processing, and the impact of smaller fruit sizes attributed to warmer, dryer climatic conditions. Additionally, the market is experiencing increased competition from Egyptian orange exports to the European market, which, despite being largely counter-seasonal to South African exports, has affected early-season demand for South African oranges.
