South Africa’s maize exports remain weak as the 2025/26 marketing year approaches its close in April 2026, raising concerns that the country may fall short of its projected seasonal export target.
According to the latest export data, South Africa shipped 39,584 tonnes of maize in the past week. Most of the grain moved into regional markets, with Zimbabwe accounting for around 52% of the shipments, followed by Botswana (15%) and Namibia (14%), while the remainder was distributed to other countries across Southern Africa.
Despite these movements, the country’s overall export performance remains below expectations.
South Africa Far from Reaching Export Target
So far this season, South Africa has exported about 1.6 million tonnes of maize, well short of the 2.4 million tonnes forecast for the marketing year.
With only a few weeks remaining before the season ends, nearly one million tonnes still need to be exported for the target to be achieved—an outcome that now appears increasingly unlikely.
The slower export pace reflects weaker global demand and abundant international maize supplies, which have reduced import requirements in several key markets.
Regional Markets Continue to Dominate
Regional demand continues to absorb the bulk of South Africa’s maize exports. Zimbabwe remains the largest buyer, while Botswana, Namibia and Mozambique also continue to import South African maize.
Outside the region, potential markets such as Vietnam, South Korea and Taiwan remain possible destinations. However, demand from these countries has been relatively modest this season compared with previous years.
Large Carryover Stocks Expected
With exports lagging behind expectations, South Africa is likely to carry over significant maize stocks into the next marketing season.
This comes at a time when the country is also anticipating another solid maize harvest, which could further increase supply levels in the domestic market.
The combination of strong production and slower export activity is expected to place continued pressure on maize prices in South Africa.
Lower Maize Prices Could Ease Food Inflation
While lower prices may pose challenges for producers, they could provide relief for consumers and the broader economy.
Maize is a key staple in the region, and softer prices could help moderate food inflation, particularly for products such as maize meal and livestock feed.