Russia’s grain exports via its Baltic Sea terminals have surged 30% this year, with nearly half of the shipments destined for African markets, according to new data from the Federal Centre for Agriculture Products Safety Evaluation.
As of November 12, Russia had exported 1.3 million tonnes of grain through its Baltic ports, with wheat comprising 93% of the volume. Of this, 42% was shipped to African countries including Morocco, Nigeria, Egypt, Senegal, Togo, Tunisia, Algeria, and Cameroon.
The uptick reflects Moscow’s strategic pivot to diversify export routes and reduce reliance on Black Sea infrastructure, which has faced repeated disruptions amid the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. In recent years, Russia has invested in new Baltic terminals—Vysotsky and Lugaport—near St. Petersburg, with a combined annual capacity of 15 million tonnes.
Despite the Baltic boost, Russia’s total grain exports remain sluggish. Between July 1 and October 31, only 16.8 million tonnes were shipped from all ports, well below the 50 million tonnes targeted for the 2024/25 marketing season. Analysts attribute the slowdown to a bumper global harvest and depressed international prices.
Why it matters for Africa:
The shift in Russian grain logistics could reshape supply dynamics for African importers, especially in North and West Africa. With Baltic routes gaining traction, stakeholders may see more stable delivery timelines and diversified sourcing options—critical amid Red Sea and Black Sea uncertainties.