15 October 2025 — Nigeria’s trade with other African nations is showing strong growth in local currency terms, but remains significantly below pre-pandemic levels when measured in U.S. dollars, according to new analysis from Finance in Africa based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data.
In the first half of 2025, Nigeria’s intra-African trade totaled $3.13 billion (₦4.82 trillion). While this marks a recovery from the pandemic lows of $2.86 billion in H1 2020 and $2.47 billion in H1 2021, it is still 30.6% below the $4.51 billion recorded in H1 2019.
Currency Depreciation Masks Real Trade Trends
The naira’s steep depreciation—losing 80% of its value since 2019—has inflated trade figures in local currency. In naira terms, trade surged 248% from ₦1.38 trillion in H1 2019 to ₦4.82 trillion in H1 2025, creating a misleading impression of growth.
Exports to Africa in H1 2025 were valued at $3.13 billion, down 36.5% from $4.93 billion in H1 2019. Yet in naira terms, exports appeared to rise 218%. Imports fell even more sharply, dropping 59% to $1.19 billion, compared to $2.89 billion in H1 2019—though naira figures more than doubled.
ECOWAS Trade Holds Steady
Nigeria’s trade with ECOWAS countries has proven more resilient. In H1 2025, trade with the bloc reached $1.95 billion (₦2.99 trillion), up 33% from $1.46 billion in H1 2019. Exports rose 15%, while imports increased 31%, with currency depreciation amplifying naira values.
Trade Outside ECOWAS Declines Sharply
Trade with non-ECOWAS African countries has collapsed. Dollar-denominated trade fell 61% to $1.19 billion in H1 2025, down from $3.05 billion six years ago. Exports plunged 63%, and imports dropped 65%, highlighting Nigeria’s narrowing trade footprint beyond West Africa.
Outlook
While naira-based figures suggest robust growth, the dollar-adjusted data reveals a more sobering picture of Nigeria’s intra-African trade performance. The divergence underscores the need for stronger currency stability and broader regional engagement to sustain meaningful trade expansion.
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