Sub-Saharan Africa recorded the fastest goods trade growth globally in the first half of 2025, according to DHL’s Global Connectiveness Tracker, produced in collaboration with NYU Stern. The region’s trade value surged by 9.7% compared to the same period in 2024, driven primarily by a 16% increase in exports—double the pace of East Asia and the Pacific, the next fastest-growing region.
Despite this strong performance, the report warns that rising U.S. tariffs and the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) could dampen future growth. AGOA had provided tariff-free access to the U.S. market for many African countries, and its expiration marks a significant shift in trade dynamics.
Export Leaders and Growth Hotspots
Countries showing the fastest trade value growth in the first half of 2025 include:
• Central African Republic
• Zambia
• Eritrea
• Burkina Faso
• Senegal
In terms of absolute trade growth in U.S. dollar terms, the top performers were:
• Ghana
• Zambia
• Côte d’Ivoire
• Democratic Republic of Congo
• Senegal
The report notes that this acceleration marks a sharp departure from the region’s post-COVID trade volume trends, suggesting renewed momentum in export activity.
Tariff Pressures and Shifting Trade Alliances
Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade volume is now projected to grow at an annualized rate of 4.3% through 2029—down from the 5.3% forecast earlier in 2025. While still the second-fastest globally behind South & Central Asia, the decline reflects the impact of U.S. tariffs and the loss of AGOA benefits.
Over the past two decades, the region has increasingly connected with China and its allies, though it still conducts more international activity with the U.S. and its close allies, including major European economies.
Intra-African Trade: A Missed Opportunity
One of the report’s most striking findings is the low level of intra-African trade. In 2024, only 19% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s trade occurred within the region—far below the global average of 50.7%. Trade flows also spanned longer distances, averaging 7,074 km compared to the global average of 5,000 km.
Countries with the highest intra-regional trade shares included:
• Eswatini
• Lesotho
• Mali
• Botswana
• Namibia
Those with the lowest shares were:
• Cabo Verde
• Sudan
• Ethiopia
• Mauritania
• Equatorial Guinea
While greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity have increased over the past two decades, intra-African goods exports rose only modestly, and imports within the region actually declined. This underscores the need for stronger implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to unlock regional trade potential.
Looking Ahead
Experts suggest that boosting intra-African trade could help offset losses from declining U.S. market access. However, the report makes clear that significant work remains to build a more integrated and resilient regional trade network. With the right policy support and infrastructure investment, Sub-Saharan Africa could transform its current momentum into long-term economic gains.