South Africa will continue to rely heavily on wheat imports in the 2025-26 marketing year, despite a modest recovery in domestic production.
Trade data from the first week of the new marketing year, which began on October 3, shows imports of 20,362 tonnes, sourced mainly from Australia (53%), Lithuania (43%), and Poland (5%).
Overall, imports are projected at 1.74 million tonnes for 2025-26, only slightly lower than the 1.83 million tonnes recorded in 2024-25. The decline reflects expectations of a slightly larger domestic harvest, estimated at 2.03 million tonnes.
Why South Africa Remains a Net Importer
South Africa has been a net wheat importer since the early 2000s. Between 1989-90 and 2002-03, imports averaged just 458,518 tonnes annually. But since the 2003-04 marketing year, imports have consistently exceeded one million tonnes.
This shift was driven by:
• Rising consumption of wheat-based foods.
• Declining plantings, particularly in the Free State, where farmers switched to more profitable crops after deregulation of agricultural markets in the late 1990s.
Today, wheat production is concentrated in the Western Cape and irrigated areas of the Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo, and North West.
Productivity Gains Cushion the Gap
Despite reduced planting areas, yields have improved significantly. In 1997-98, average yields were below 2.0 tonnes per hectare. By the 2024-25 season, yields had risen to 3.8 tonnes per hectare, thanks to better farming practices and technology.
These gains have helped sustain production, but not enough to meet annual consumption of around 3.8 million tonnes. Imports therefore continue to account for roughly half of South Africa’s wheat needs.
Outlook for 2025-26
While the upcoming harvest offers some relief, South Africa’s structural dependence on imports remains entrenched. Unless profitability improves and plantings expand, the country will continue to rely on global suppliers to fill the gap between domestic output and consumer demand.
For African agribusiness stakeholders, South Africa’s wheat story underscores a broader regional challenge: balancing productivity gains with food security, while navigating global market volatility.
Source: WandileSihlobo