Whenever I see challenges within South Africa’s agriculture, Zimbabwe is the other country I think of as their challenges are often worse. Notably, South Africa typically has to shoulder Zimbabwe when there are challenges, specifically in staple grain production.
Consider the 2023-24 production year, when Zimbabwe had a challenging season due to the mid-summer drought that affected Southern Africa. Zimbabwe’s maize harvest fell nearly 60% to around 635 000 tonnes, the lowest since the 2015-16 production season when the country experienced a drought.
Although a significant factor, the drought is not the only reason for the fall in Zimbabwe’s maize harvest. The decline in fertilizer usage also contributed to poor yields. While fertilizer prices are down from the previous year, they remain well above the pre-COVID-19 levels, thus adding financial strain on farmers. Fertilizer makes up roughly a third of grain farmers’ input costs.
This significant decline in Zimbabwe’s maize production led to a sharp increase in imports, and South Africa played an important role in supplying maize to Zimbabwe (at market prices).
To understand how much maize Zimbabwe needs to import, consider its annual consumption of about two million tonnes. Therefore, with a harvest of 635 000 tonnes, the country needs at least a million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, which ends in April 2025, to meet domestic needs (the 2024-25 marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season).
Of course, this is a significant increase from Zimbabwe’s maize imports of 637 327 tonnes in the 2023-24 marketing year, all from South Africa.
Between May 2024 and the first week of January 2025, South Africa exported 907 318 tonnes of maize to Zimbabwe. This is about 57% of South Africa’s total maize exports to the world market during this period.
Yes, South Africa was already affected by the mid-summer drought of 2024. Still, South Africa’s maize harvest did not fall as sharply as we saw in Zimbabwe, partly because of improved seed cultivars and better fertilizer usage, among other things. Irrigation is not a major factor, as only 10% of South African maize is under irrigation, and the rest is rainfed. We also see similar proportions of maize under irrigation in Zimbabwe.
The immense demand for maize from Zimbabwe and other African countries partly accounts for the higher maize prices in South Africa.
But this is all history. I am now focusing on how much maize Zimbabwe will plant in the 2024-25 production season, which is underway (this corresponds with the 2025-26 marketing year that starts in May 2026).
For South Africa, this has been a tricky season, with some regions experiencing late-starting rains. Still, we have started receiving widespread rains, and we are optimistic that South Africa will recover in agricultural production in the 2024-25 season.
On January 14, 2025, The Herald, a newspaper, reported that Zimbabwean farmers had planted 1.7 million hectares of maize, about 97% of the area they intended to plant.
These are government figures, which can often be tough to trust. The Zimbabwean government has a long history of being economical about its agricultural data, often overstating things.
Be that as it may, this would be roughly in line with the area Zimbabwe planted in the 2023-24 season and slightly below the average area of 1,9 million hectares for maize. The government attributes the decline in the area planting this 2024-25 season to the late start and the excessive rains that have prevented farmers from planting within the optimal window.
It is early to speculate about Zimbabwe’s 2024-25 maize production. Still, it is worth noting that this is an area South Africa must continuously monitor. Any challenges with their harvest would ordinarily be South Africa’s responsibility.